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The latest report by the USDepartment of AgricultureUSDA),presenting the globalrice look, said that the Global riceproduction in 2023-24 is set at a record513.5 million tonne (mt) (milled basis),down 4.5 mt from last month's forecastbut still fractionally above a year earlier.This month, production forecasts for2023-24 were lowered for Bangladesh,China, and the United States, with Chinaaccountingforthe bulkofthereduction.Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Burma,Cambodia, Colombia, Egypt, theEuropean Union, Ghana,Guyana,Kazakhstan, North Korea, Malaysia,Pakistan, Russia,Sri Lanka,Tanzania, theUnited States,Urugay,and Vietnamaccount for the bulk of the expectedincrease in global rice production in 2023-24.Pakistan and the United States areprojected to achieve the largest productiongains in 2023-24. Both countries harvestedabnormally small crops in 2022-23 due totheadverseweather.

The rice production in2023-24 isprojected to decline almost 3.8 mt inIndia to 132.0 mt, though this is still thesecond highest projected harvest onrecord. China's 2023-24 production isprojected to decline 1.3 mt from a yearearlier to 144.6 mt due to smallerharvested area.Thailand's 2023-24 riceproduction is projected to decline 0.9mt 20.0 mt due to a delayed start to therainy season.Indonesia's 2023-24 riceproduction is projected to decline500,000 tonne to 33.5 mt, also due to adelayed start to the rainy season. Riceproduction is projected to continue todecline in Japan and South Korea due to the declining and aging populations.Weaker crops are also projected in 2023-24 for Bangladesh, Costa Rica, EcuadorLaos, Mali, Nepal, Nigeria, Turkey, andUzbekistan.

The total global rice supplies in 2023-24are projected at 689.3 mt, down 3.5 mtfrom the previous forecast and 6.9 mtbelow a year earlier and the secondconsecutive year of declining global ricesupplies.The downward supply revisionis the result of a 4.5 mt decrease in the2023-24 global production forecastmore than offsetting a 1.1 mtincrease inthe 2023-24 carry-in estimate, Chinaaccountsfor most ofthe reduction in the2023-24 global production forecast.Bangladesh,Indonesia,Malaysia, andSaudi Arabla account for most of theincrease in the 2023-24 carry-inestimate.

The year-on-year decline in global ricesupplies in 2023-24 is the result of a 7.5mt decrease in the 2023-24 carry-in to175.8 mt,more than offsetting a583,000 tonne projected increase inglobal production. China accounts forthe bulk of the decline in global carry-inin 2023-24, with China's 2023-24 carryin dropping 6.4 mtto 106.6 mt.

Global domestic and residual use in2023-24 is projected at a record 522.1mt, down 2.95 mt from the previousforecastbutupalmost 1.7 mtfrom ayearearlier, exceeding production by 8.6 mt.Domestic and residual use forecasts arelowered this month for BangladeshChina, and Madagascar, but raised forAlgeria, Paraguay,and Saudi Arabia.China's 2023-24 domestic and residualuse forecast is lowered almost 2 mt to 149.9 mt as the use of rice for feed hasdeclined. China's imports of low-pricedbroken from India have virtually ceaseddue to India's ban on exports of brokenannounced in September 2022, and thedecline of prices for corn and other feedgrains.

Global ending stocks in 2023-24 areprojected at 167.25 mt, 513,000 tonnebelow the previous forecast and 8.6 mtsmaller than a year earlier and thesmallest in 6 years. China accounts forthe bulk of the downward revision in2023-24 global ending stocks, lowered2.5 mt to 102.0 mt, down 4.6 mt from ayear earlier. Ending stocks forecastswere also lowered this month forBangladesh, Burma, lraq, and Paraguay,but raised for India,Indonesia, Malaysia,Saudi Arabia, South Africa, Sri Lanka,Thailand,and the United States.

China and India account for the bulk ofthe year-to-year decline in global endingstocks. China's 2023-24 ending stocksare projected to decline 4.6 mt to 102.0mt, andIndia's are projected to decrease2.0 mt to 33.0 mt. Despite theseexpected declines in stocks, China andIndia together still account for nearly 81percent of global ending stocks. Endingstocks are also expected to decline in2023-24 in Bangladesh, japan, Nigeria,Sri Lanka,Thailand, and Vietnam. Theseexpected declines in ending stocks in2023-24arepartiallyoffsetbyprojectionsfor rising stocks for Indonesia, SouthKorea, Pakistan, and the United States.The 2023-24 global ending stocks-to-useratio is estimated at 32.0 percent, downfrom 33.8 percent a year earlier and thesmallestsince 2016-17.

From World Rice News on Grains Asia.